GE2020 Video 1: To help the PAP and Singapore improve, I’m voting opposition

Sudhir Thomas Vadaketh

6 years ago

My political preferences haven’t changed for the past ten odd years. I would like to see the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) in power, but with a much, much reduced majority. In this video I tell you why.

This is the first in a series of four GE2020 videos:

1. “To help the PAP and Singapore improve, I’m voting opposition.”
Here

2. “The natural aristocrats: We know everything. Just listen to us.”
Tuesday, 7 July, 7pm

3. “Singapore is small and vulnerable so we need a one-party state. True?”
Wednesday, 8 July, 7pm

4. ” If I vote for the opposition, will I lose my job? Will Singapore collapse?”
Thursday, 9 July, 9am

Full show notes below, but before that, an important electoral calculation point of note: at 4:28, I say the PAP needs a minimum of 25-35% of the vote share to win the election with a simple majority of seats, i.e. 47/93.

This is an approximation for video based on hard calculations. You can see the hard calculations here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Vf_lTKqeY6iRBb2EC-ZT1qUUKs41ufKN_1LcJgne1w/edit?usp=sharing

I calculated the minimum vote shares needed for the PAP to win the election with a simple majority of seats, 47/93. This is over 23% of the vote. However, that assumes that it gets 0% in other districts. Assuming it gets 40% in the districts it loses, then the PAP’s minimum vote share goes up to over 45%.

I also calculated the minimum vote shares needed for the PAP to win the election with a supermajority of seats, 62/93. This is over 32% of the vote. However, that assumes that it gets 0% in other districts. Assuming it gets 40% in the districts it loses, then the PAP’s minimum vote share goes up to almost 47%.

Now there are much longer debates we can have some other time about all of this. There are many thoughts and implications about our first-past-the-post system.

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