My political preferences haven’t changed for the past ten odd years. I would like to see the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) in power, but with a much, much reduced majority. In this video I tell you why.
This is the first in a series of four GE2020 videos:
1. “To help the PAP and Singapore improve, I’m voting opposition.”
Here
2. “The natural aristocrats: We know everything. Just listen to us.”
Tuesday, 7 July, 7pm
3. “Singapore is small and vulnerable so we need a one-party state. True?”
Wednesday, 8 July, 7pm
4. ” If I vote for the opposition, will I lose my job? Will Singapore collapse?”
Thursday, 9 July, 9am
Full show notes below, but before that, an important electoral calculation point of note: at 4:28, I say the PAP needs a minimum of 25-35% of the vote share to win the election with a simple majority of seats, i.e. 47/93.
This is an approximation for video based on hard calculations. You can see the hard calculations here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Vf_lTKqeY6iRBb2EC-ZT1qUUKs41ufKN_1LcJgne1w/edit?usp=sharing
I calculated the minimum vote shares needed for the PAP to win the election with a simple majority of seats, 47/93. This is over 23% of the vote. However, that assumes that it gets 0% in other districts. Assuming it gets 40% in the districts it loses, then the PAP’s minimum vote share goes up to over 45%.
I also calculated the minimum vote shares needed for the PAP to win the election with a supermajority of seats, 62/93. This is over 32% of the vote. However, that assumes that it gets 0% in other districts. Assuming it gets 40% in the districts it loses, then the PAP’s minimum vote share goes up to almost 47%.
Now there are much longer debates we can have some other time about all of this. There are many thoughts and implications about our first-past-the-post system.
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Show notes:
0:44 Mariam Jaafar
1:01 Ivan Lim
1:44 Josephine Teo
1:54 Chan Chung Sing and Pritam Singh
2:22 Chan Chun Sing leaked audio
2:35 PAP changing the constitution over fifty times since 1959
3:00 Tan Cheng “BLOCK”
https://sudhirtv.com/2017/09/10/on-singapores-presidential-election/
6:13 Jamus Lim
6:44 OK Pocky
Utterly non sense that Ms Tin Pei Ling’s proclaimed success of finding employment for the elderly.
PAP really has lost it
The elderly deserve retirement benefits sufficient for any economic hardships not working till 100.
Well summarised and put together Sudhir, the numbers (%) are (finally) clear (to me!)…
Outsider perspective (again), a country that claims to be First World shouldn’t have old uncles and aunties clearing tables at hawker centres or selling tissue packs or collecting cardboard to get by, there must be a safety net, the numbers, by any reasonable global comparison, aren’t that large for the government to claim they can’t afford it.
Seeing as there has only been one ruling party since inception, presumably there’s no debate as to where the fault lies.
Thanks…
For me, my preference is a complete removal of the PAP, or a reduction of their representation in Parliament to minority level.